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参考影片︰The Short, Unhappy Lives of Fiat Currencies
以下是影片节录的文字版本︰
The average life expectancy for a fiat currency is 27 years
法定货币的平均寿命为27年
Every 30 to 40 years, the reigning monetary system fails and has to be retooled
根据华盛顿博客的资料，每30至40年
from Washington's Blog
支配当代的货币体系会崩溃，并要更换
David Galland notes:
David Galland指出：
Monetary scholar Edwin Vieira pointed out that every 30 to 40 years
货币学者Edwin Vieira指，每30至40年
the reigning monetary system fails and has to be retooled
支配当代的货币体系会崩溃，并要更换
The last time around for the US was in 1971
美国上一次崩溃是在1971年
when Nixon cancelled the convertibility of dollars into gold
当尼克森总统停止美元兑换黄金之时
Remarkably
值得注意的是
the world bought into the unbacked dollar as its reserve currency
世界完全相信并无实质支撑的美元作其储备货币
but only because that was the path of least resistance
但仅仅因为这是阻力最小的路
But here we are 40 years later and it is clear to anyone paying attention that
40年后的今天，任何留心的人都知道
the monetary system is irretrievably broken, and will fail
货币体系将崩溃至无法挽救的地步，并会瓦解
What will replace it is still unclear
目前还不清楚什么将取代它
but I suspect that when the stuff really hits the fan and inflation rages
但我猜，当现行系统出麻烦和通胀肆虐
the government will try the approach taken by
政府将采取早于1920年代
the Germans to end their hyperinflation back in the 1920s
德国用来结束恶性通胀的方式来解决
coming up with the equivalent of the Rentenmark –
他们会提出相当于「地租马克」——
a dollar that is loosely linked to some basket of commodities and financial instruments
一种松散地联系 至一篮子的商品和金融工具的货币
It won't be convertible
它不可被兑换
because it would be impossible for bank tellers to exchange your dollar for a cup of oil
因银行职员不能将你的金钱换成一杯油
and a coupon off of a bond, and a chip of gold
和将债券换成优惠劵或一片黄金
or whatever makes up the basket
或任何组成该货币篮子的东西
but it might restore some semblance of confidence in the currency
但它可能会恢复一些类似对货币的信心
That's one option
这是一个选择
Another is that some government decides to make its currency convertible into precious metals
另一个则是，某些政府会决定使其货币能兑换贵金属
but that will only happen when all other less fiscally restraining systems
但这只会在其他较少财政约束的货币系统
have been floated and failed
已被采纳和瓦解后才发生
Simply, at this point, we can't know what will replace the current monetary system
不过，现在还不知道什么会取代目前的货币体系
or when
或什么时候会发生
All we can know is that the status quo cannot and so will not survive this crisis
我们只肯定现时的系统是无法熬过这次危机的
Regardless, between now and the point in time
无论如何，从现时到某刻
where the Fed throws in the towel on today's fiat monetary system
一旦美联储放弃现时的法定货币体系
you would have to be naïve in the extreme not to expect volatility, uncertainty
那么你要极度天真才觉得不会出现波动、不确定
and wholesale financial dislocations
或出现大规模金融动荡
Chris Mack writes:
Chris Mack写道：
According to a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org
根据由DollarDaze.org对775种法定货币作的研究
there is no historical precedence for a fiat currency that has succeeded in holding its value
历史上并无法定货币能成功保值的先例
20% failed through hyperinflation
20%因恶性通胀而作废
21% were destroyed by war
21%遭战争破坏
12% destroyed by independence
12%毁于国家独立
24% were monetarily reformed
24%经历货币改革
and 23% are still in circulation approaching one of the other outcomes
23%是仍在流通但面临以上命运的货币
The average life expectancy for a fiat currency is 27 years, with the shortest life span being one month
法定货币平均寿命为27年，最短为一个月
Founded in 1694, the British pound Sterling is the oldest fiat currency in existence
成立于1694年，英镑是现存历史最悠久的法定货币
At a ripe old age of 317 years
活至317年之高龄
it must be considered a highly successful fiat currency
它必被认为是非常成功的法定货币
However, success is relative
但成功是相对的
The British pound was defined as 12 ounces of silver
一英镑定义为12盎司白银
so it's worth less than 1/200 or 0.5% of its original value
故现价只值起始的1/200或0.5%
In other words, the most successful longstanding currency in existence
换句话说，史上最成功的货币
has lost 99.5% of its value
已失去其原本价值的99.5%
Given the undeniable track record of currencies
根据无可否定的货币记录
it is clear that on a long enough timeline, the survival rate of all fiat currencies drops to zero
显然当时间足够，所有法定货币的存活率便下降至零
And Jeff Clark points out:
Jeff Clark指出：
History has a message for us:
历史给我们一个信息：
No fiat currency has lasted forever
没有法定货币能永远维持下去
Eventually, they all fail
最终它们必定瓦解
BMG BullionBars recently published a poster
BMG BullionBars网站最近公布了
featuring pictures of numerous currencies that have gone bust
一张展示许多被废货币图片的海报
Some got there quickly, while others took a century or more
一些很快崩溃，而另一些则熬了逾一个世纪
Regardless of how long it took, though
但无论存在多长时间
the seductive temptations allowed under a fiat monetary system
法定货币体系下的诱惑
eventually caught up with these governments
最终会令各国政府自作自受
and their currencies went… poof!
他们的货币会化为乌有！
You might suspect that this happened only to Third World countries
你可能会认为这只会发生在第三世界国家
You'd be wrong
你就错了
There was no discrimination as to the size or perceived stability of a nation's economy
货币崩溃宿命与国家经济或稳定性无关
if the leaders abused their currency
若一国领导滥用其货币
the country paid the price
国家便须付出沉重代价
As you look at the pictures here
当你看到这些图片
you'll see some long-ago casualties
会看到一些很久以前的受害者
What's shocking though, is how many have occurred in our lifetime?
令人震惊的是，有多少已在我们有生之年发生？
You might count how many currencies
你可以计算一下，从你出生至今
have failed since you've been born
有多少货币体系崩溃了
So what's the one word for the “thousand pictures” you are seeing?
那么，可用哪个字来形容你所看到的「千幅图」？
Worthless
一文不值
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发表于 2021-3-24 14:00:59